Why Curtis Samuel be considered to be Buffalo Bills top wide receiver in 2024 over Keon Coleman…

Do not be so quick to anoint Keon Coleman as the Bills’ top fantasy football wide receiver. Here are some insights to consider:

Buffalo Bills’ Wide Receiver Situation

With the departures of Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis, there are now numerous open targets in Buffalo. Keon Coleman, a rookie, has gained attention for his engaging interviews and likable personality. However, his performance metrics are not as promising. Coleman recorded 7.3 yards per target (YPT), which was the second-lowest among this year’s wide receiver prospects. Additionally, during his college career, he was never a primary target in the offense. Khalil Shakir has shown potential in some instances, but he had a mere 14.2% target rate last season, even when given more playing time.

Chase Claypool vs. Curtis Samuel

There has been some enthusiasm about Chase Claypool, but Curtis Samuel should be considered the leading candidate to become Buffalo’s top wide receiver in 2024. Samuel fits well into the Bills’ offense, providing a much-needed dimension. Despite playing in a dysfunctional Washington offense last season, Samuel outperformed Jahan Dotson significantly, achieving five top-25 wide receiver finishes while catching passes primarily from Sam Howell. Although Samuel is prone to injuries, especially with an increased role, he currently represents one of the best value picks in fantasy drafts.

Curtis Samuel’s Stats (2023-2024 Season):

– 613 receiving yards

– 38.3 yards per game

– 91 targets

– 62 receptions

– 4 touchdowns

Under Joe Brady’s play-calling, the Bills adopted a run-heavy approach last season. However, Samuel remains in a favorable position to achieve his best fantasy season yet.

Cooper Kupp

Although I usually prefer drafting younger players in fantasy football, Cooper Kupp is an exception for 2024. Kupp’s performance dipped last season due to playing through injuries, yet he still managed to match Puka Nacua’s target share when they were on the field together. Nacua emerged as a dominant receiver and will continue to draw targets, but Kupp is entering 2024 fully healthy.

Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua’s Stats (2023-2024 Season):

– Kupp: 737 yards, 61.4 yards per game, 95 targets, 59 receptions, 5 touchdowns

– Nacua: 1,486 yards, 87.4 yards per game, 160 targets, 105 receptions, 6 touchdowns

At 31 years old, Kupp is unlikely to decline significantly. The Rams excelled in yards per play when their offense was fully healthy last season, and Sean McVay is adept at generating WR fantasy points. Kupp, only two seasons removed from an extraordinary 191-145-1,947-16 campaign, is available in the fourth round of Yahoo drafts despite 20 receivers being drafted before him. With the Rams having a weak WR3 and TE1, as well as an injury-prone RB1, Kupp’s targets should be highly concentrated.

Derrick Henry

Derrick Henry is another veteran I’m highly optimistic about this year. His recent statistical decline was more reflective of a struggling Titans offense rather than his own performance. Henry still ranked among the top-three in yards per carry (YPC) after contact against stacked defenses in 2023. At 30 years old, Henry’s early-career touches were limited, and he remains exceptionally durable. Despite a reduced snap share of 53% last season, Henry led the league in carries for the fourth time in five years, with the Titans managing just 4.9 yards per play.

Derrick Henry’s Stats (2023-2024 Season):

– 1,167 rushing yards

– 68.6 yards per game

– 4.2 YPC

– 12 touchdowns

– 69-yard long run

Henry’s move to Baltimore in the offseason represents a significant upgrade. He faced more eight-man defensive fronts than any other running back over the past three seasons. In contrast, Lamar Jackson’s presence helped the Ravens’ depleted running back group achieve the fourth-most fantasy points last year. Henry’s running style suits Baltimore’s offense well, with his career YPC increasing by over a full yard when running from shotgun and pistol formations.

Baltimore’s top-tier run-blocking unit is a stark improvement over Tennessee’s. Henry has historically excelled during team wins, averaging 98.4 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) with 65 touchdowns in 59 victories compared to 49.1 rushing yards (4.0 YPC) and 15 touchdowns in 44 losses. With the Ravens projected to win 11 or more games in 2024, they are likely to give Henry 300 carries on an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game last year. Henry, still highly motivated, is my RB6 and worth drafting in the middle of Round 2, even in PPR formats.

Sam LaPorta vs. Trey McBride

Avoid drafting Sam LaPorta with a top-25 pick when Trey McBride is available three rounds later. Dalton Kincaid is also a viable option in Round 5. Although LaPorta had an impressive rookie season, many of his fantasy points were derived from an unsustainable touchdown rate. He ranked fifth among tight ends in expected fantasy points but 47th overall in fantasy points over replacement per game. LaPorta, drafted as the clear fantasy TE1, is not even the primary target on his own team, which continues to have one of the league’s lowest pass rates over expectation.

Sam LaPorta vs. Trey McBride’s Stats (2023-2024 Season):

– LaPorta: 889 yards, 52.3 yards per game, 86 receptions, 10 touchdowns

– McBride: 825 yards, 48.5 yards per game, 81 receptions, 3 touchdowns

McBride was a standout in college, scoring more than twice as many touchdowns as LaPorta. After becoming a full-time player in Week 8 last year, McBride achieved a 20-plus% target share in 12 consecutive games, a feat LaPorta managed in just six games all season. McBride averaged 11.6 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) from Weeks 10-17 with only one touchdown, compared to LaPorta’s 12.0 fantasy points per game with five touchdowns over the same period. LaPorta benefited significantly from playing at home, scoring nine out of ten touchdowns there, but his profile indicates potential regression.

A strong Tier 1 of tight ends exists, though the specific cutoff may vary, and targeting a later one from that group is ideal. Despite rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. potentially reducing McBride’s targets, Arizona’s competition is significantly weaker than Detroit’s. Therefore, I’ve elevated McBride to TE1.

Harrison Jr. vs. Malik Nabers

Marvin Harrison Jr. is being drafted more than 55 picks ahead of Malik Nabers in Yahoo drafts. Although Arizona’s quarterback situation favors Harrison finishing with more fantasy points as a rookie, the odds should be much closer to 50/50 rather than reflected in a five-round difference in ADP. Nabers, who might be the better prospect, deserves more consideration.

Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell

Stefon Diggs displayed signs of decline last season and will be adjusting to a new offense in his tenth year. His deep ball yards per target plummeted in 2023, despite a stable off-target rate. Shakir outgained Diggs in receiving yards over Buffalo’s final ten games with less than half the targets. Nonetheless, Diggs is often drafted ahead of Kupp.

Tank Dell slightly edged out Nico Collins in target share (22.6% vs. 22.1%) and had a substantial advantage in air yards share (36.0% vs. 25.4%) during the seven games where both played at least 50% of the snaps. Dell, a skilled route-runner, averaged 10.8 targets, 6.3 catches, and 92.3 receiving yards with five touchdowns over his final four games as a rookie.